Current state of the property market in Sydenham

[stuart]

To me, the most obvious way is allowing increased supply when housing becomes unaffordable

But the stalling, and worse the fear of a drop, in house prices appears to be a driver in the drop in London home starts during 2018. Until we get a consensus on providing more state funded housing (unlikely in the near term) what incentive is there for private developers to dangerously expose themselves to enormous losses if the market collapses?

Its not a case of fact but belief amongst their bankers about downside risk this year and next. A group of people the current government appears to not be listening to. I guess quite a few are checking the birthplaces of their grandparents.

Remember our own Dylon disaster in Lower Sydenham? [Couldn't sell and had to be sold off to a HA - good for a few tenants - but bad for building more homes].

Stuart

[rustya]

Brexit is not an issue. Project fear is the problem.

viewtopic.php?f=9&t=19403

On a personal note my daughter is looking to upgrade from a one bed flat in FH to a three bed home. She foolishly sees me as a wise sage in terms of property investment. I said, of course, in these times of uncertainty it may be best to hold-off buying as there could be a significant drop in prices if we exit the EU badly creating nasty negative equity situations but an opportunity to buy back in at better prices.

Oh Dad, you are so right she agreed. What we will do now is sell the flat, move back in with you and await the crash.

She was surprised when I suddenly adjusted my stance that, perhaps on reflection, the crash assumption could be overstated. Better to just sit it out. Perhaps there are more important things than Brexit?

Stuart
PS Sydenham/FH doesn't appear in her searches. Much too expensive despite both earning with a decent income with 7x salary mortgage offered.

7x income - which lender is this with? - that is unreal?!!!

[alywin]

Thanks to those who actually replied to my question

[Tim Lund]

For reasons which had absolutely nothing to do with thinking of selling, I just looked at a chart from Streetcheck.co.uk for a post code in SE26

[alywin]

Gulp!

[John H]

I put my house on the market. The estate agent was so careless they damaged my prospects of a sale. They are an estate agent well known in Sydenham which claims a level of success I cannot substantiate.

My four bedroom above average sized Victorian semi was described, by them, as a three bedroom terraced house.

Their valuation was around what one might expect for such a house. I have independently had my house valued at a substantially greater figure.

I moved to another estate agent who performed better but again seemed constrained by the commission needs of its employees. These unqualified people simply want to move property quickly and they seem to believe CHEAP sells. In my view it does not.

With the second agent I received a number of viewings but the people they turned up with were clearly not in a position to afford a house of this quality. They were selling to the wrong market.

The market is slow. There are certain levels within the market where houses will not sell at present. The incompetence of estate agents and the absence of alternative avenues to sell (private treaty) have disappeared with the collapse of local newspapers. There is nowhere for the private seller to advertise. The various property sites operate as cartels and shut out the private seller.

There are a number of factors affecting the market BUT the property market has shown over the decades how it is able to adjust to any kind of situation. At present there is sheer panic in the "buy to let" market and this is having an effect. The removal of the "buy to let" phenomenon is something to celebrate. Anyone and everyone knows that a "buy to let" property in your immediate vicinity has a detrimental effect on the value of your property. Buy to let properties are generally neglected and attract people who are not interested in preserving the quality of their surroundings.

Sydenham will be a hot spot once a few of the many factors hindering sales have been resolved. Once Project fear is out of the way and once the slack created by the "buy to let" collapse has disappeared and with wages now increasing faster than pricces then it is only a matter of time before the market recovers.

Stability, taking a point from the above posts, is created by balance between supply and demand. If Brexit results in fewer newcomers to the market then that will stablise the market. If, as appears to be happening, the first time buyer returns to the market then there will be a demand stimulus BUT the absence of vast numbers of people arriving with housing needs is likely to have a far greater effect.

By next year I believe the property market will have stabilised and begun to show signs of increasing prices at a modest rate. That is the ideal. It will remain true until the property market is moved out of equilibrium, again, by some ill-judged political act.

[Tim Lund]

I put my house on the market. The estate agent was so careless they damaged my prospects of a sale. They are an estate agent well known in Sydenham which claims a level of success I cannot substantiate.

My four bedroom above average sized Victorian semi was described, by them, as a three bedroom terraced house.

Their valuation was around what one might expect for such a house. I have independently had my house valued at a substantially greater figure.

I moved to another estate agent who performed better but again seemed constrained by the commission needs of its employees. These unqualified people simply want to move property quickly and they seem to believe CHEAP sells. In my view it does not.

With the second agent I received a number of viewings but the people they turned up with were clearly not in a position to afford a house of this quality. They were selling to the wrong market.

The market is slow. There are certain levels within the market where houses will not sell at present. The incompetence of estate agents and the absence of alternative avenues to sell (private treaty) have disappeared with the collapse of local newspapers. There is nowhere for the private seller to advertise. The various property sites operate as cartels and shut out the private seller.

There are a number of factors affecting the market BUT the property market has shown over the decades how it is able to adjust to any kind of situation. At present there is sheer panic in the "buy to let" market and this is having an effect. The removal of the "buy to let" phenomenon is something to celebrate. Anyone and everyone knows that a "buy to let" property in your immediate vicinity has a detrimental effect on the value of your property. Buy to let properties are generally neglected and attract people who are not interested in preserving the quality of their surroundings.

Sydenham will be a hot spot once a few of the many factors hindering sales have been resolved. Once Project fear is out of the way and once the slack created by the "buy to let" collapse has disappeared and with wages now increasing faster than pricces then it is only a matter of time before the market recovers.

Stability, taking a point from the above posts, is created by balance between supply and demand. If Brexit results in fewer newcomers to the market then that will stablise the market. If, as appears to be happening, the first time buyer returns to the market then there will be a demand stimulus BUT the absence of vast numbers of people arriving with housing needs is likely to have a far greater effect.

By next year I believe the property market will have stabilised and begun to show signs of increasing prices at a modest rate. That is the ideal. It will remain true until the property market is moved out of equilibrium, again, by some ill-judged political act.

I agree with a fair amount of this. Speculative BTL investment has pushed up prices, and without it, the market will stabilise, but at a lower level. I don't agree that BTL has to be bad, but changing UK attitudes to renting is going to take decades. They really do things much better in Germany - here's something I wrote a while back

How to fix the rental market for real

I'm a bit doubtful about the argument of real wages increasing more than prices, because I think it might miss that many people are working on zero hours contracts, so while their hourly pay goes up, the number of hours they get to work declines

We're not going to agree on Brexit, but let's leave that aside for the time being

[appletree]

"Project Fear" is Project Reality, so I would not expect many people to be able to afford current prices in Sydenham for the next ten years.

[Ghlpc]

I put my house on the market. The estate agent was so careless they damaged my prospects of a sale. They are an estate agent well known in Sydenham which claims a level of success I cannot substantiate.

My four bedroom above average sized Victorian semi was described, by them, as a three bedroom terraced house.

Their valuation was around what one might expect for such a house. I have independently had my house valued at a substantially greater figure.

I moved to another estate agent who performed better but again seemed constrained by the commission needs of its employees. These unqualified people simply want to move property quickly and they seem to believe CHEAP sells. In my view it does not.

With the second agent I received a number of viewings but the people they turned up with were clearly not in a position to afford a house of this quality. They were selling to the wrong market.

The market is slow. There are certain levels within the market where houses will not sell at present. The incompetence of estate agents and the absence of alternative avenues to sell (private treaty) have disappeared with the collapse of local newspapers. There is nowhere for the private seller to advertise. The various property sites operate as cartels and shut out the private seller.

There are a number of factors affecting the market BUT the property market has shown over the decades how it is able to adjust to any kind of situation. At present there is sheer panic in the "buy to let" market and this is having an effect. The removal of the "buy to let" phenomenon is something to celebrate. Anyone and everyone knows that a "buy to let" property in your immediate vicinity has a detrimental effect on the value of your property. Buy to let properties are generally neglected and attract people who are not interested in preserving the quality of their surroundings.

Sydenham will be a hot spot once a few of the many factors hindering sales have been resolved. Once Project fear is out of the way and once the slack created by the "buy to let" collapse has disappeared and with wages now increasing faster than pricces then it is only a matter of time before the market recovers.

Stability, taking a point from the above posts, is created by balance between supply and demand. If Brexit results in fewer newcomers to the market then that will stablise the market. If, as appears to be happening, the first time buyer returns to the market then there will be a demand stimulus BUT the absence of vast numbers of people arriving with housing needs is likely to have a far greater effect.

By next year I believe the property market will have stabilised and begun to show signs of increasing prices at a modest rate. That is the ideal. It will remain true until the property market is moved out of equilibrium, again, by some ill-judged political act.

Out of interest, did you manage to sell your property in the end?

I'd agree with you to a certain extent on your opinion of the BTL market, but as a landlord of a few properties I'd like to stick up for my tenants somewhat as they have all treated their houses and surroundings with respect and care.

I have found a tenants attitudes tend to reflect the input of the landlord. If you look after your properties and keep up a certain standard of maintenance and appearance, tenants tend to behave in the same way. Conversely if a landlord is absent or shows a lack of interest when things go wrong, then why should the tenant care?

Some people simply cannot afford the huge deposits required to purchase a property in the areas which they wish to live in. Letting offers them the chance to do so.

I don't beleive the removal of the Buy to Let industry is something to be celebrated, instead more regulation is needed and more recognition for good landlords.

We can vet prospective tenants to the bone before we accept them, I would like to see it work the other way too.

On topic of this post though, from my experience there are lot of properties currently on the market that are well overvalued, and often you see big price reductions on them over the months. Sydenham, Penge and parts of Anerley good areas to buy in for whatever the reason though.

[John H]

I put my house on the market. The estate agent was so careless they damaged my prospects of a sale. They are an estate agent well known in Sydenham which claims a level of success I cannot substantiate.

My four bedroom above average sized Victorian semi was described, by them, as a three bedroom terraced house.

Their valuation was around what one might expect for such a house. I have independently had my house valued at a substantially greater figure.

I moved to another estate agent who performed better but again seemed constrained by the commission needs of its employees. These unqualified people simply want to move property quickly and they seem to believe CHEAP sells. In my view it does not.

With the second agent I received a number of viewings but the people they turned up with were clearly not in a position to afford a house of this quality. They were selling to the wrong market.

The market is slow. There are certain levels within the market where houses will not sell at present. The incompetence of estate agents and the absence of alternative avenues to sell (private treaty) have disappeared with the collapse of local newspapers. There is nowhere for the private seller to advertise. The various property sites operate as cartels and shut out the private seller.

There are a number of factors affecting the market BUT the property market has shown over the decades how it is able to adjust to any kind of situation. At present there is sheer panic in the "buy to let" market and this is having an effect. The removal of the "buy to let" phenomenon is something to celebrate. Anyone and everyone knows that a "buy to let" property in your immediate vicinity has a detrimental effect on the value of your property. Buy to let properties are generally neglected and attract people who are not interested in preserving the quality of their surroundings.

Sydenham will be a hot spot once a few of the many factors hindering sales have been resolved. Once Project fear is out of the way and once the slack created by the "buy to let" collapse has disappeared and with wages now increasing faster than pricces then it is only a matter of time before the market recovers.

Stability, taking a point from the above posts, is created by balance between supply and demand. If Brexit results in fewer newcomers to the market then that will stablise the market. If, as appears to be happening, the first time buyer returns to the market then there will be a demand stimulus BUT the absence of vast numbers of people arriving with housing needs is likely to have a far greater effect.

By next year I believe the property market will have stabilised and begun to show signs of increasing prices at a modest rate. That is the ideal. It will remain true until the property market is moved out of equilibrium, again, by some ill-judged political act.

Out of interest, did you manage to sell your property in the end?

I'd agree with you to a certain extent on your opinion of the BTL market, but as a landlord of a few properties I'd like to stick up for my tenants somewhat as they have all treated their houses and surroundings with respect and care.

I have found a tenants attitudes tend to reflect the input of the landlord. If you look after your properties and keep up a certain standard of maintenance and appearance, tenants tend to behave in the same way. Conversely if a landlord is absent or shows a lack of interest when things go wrong, then why should the tenant care?

Some people simply cannot afford the huge deposits required to purchase a property in the areas which they wish to live in. Letting offers them the chance to do so.

I don't beleive the removal of the Buy to Let industry is something to be celebrated, instead more regulation is needed and more recognition for good landlords.

We can vet prospective tenants to the bone before we accept them, I would like to see it work the other way too.

On topic of this post though, from my experience there are lot of properties currently on the market that are well overvalued, and often you see big price reductions on them over the months. Sydenham, Penge and parts of Anerley good areas to buy in for whatever the reason though.

No. I took my house off the market. The damage done by the initial estate agents' errors could not be overcome in the short term. The best thing to do, in such circumstances and if you can, is to take the property off the market for a years or two. That is what I have done.

The buy to let tenants close to me are a definite "devaluing" element. I do not disagree with your points but it only takes one bad apple to rot the whole barrel. That sadly is what has happened with buy to let. I know "buy to let" landlords and those I know have a fundamentally inappropriate attitude to the business.

[stuart]

The buy to let tenants close to me are a definite "devaluing" element. I do not disagree with your points but it only takes one bad apple to rot the whole barrel. That sadly is what has happened with buy to let. I know "buy to let" landlords and those I know have a fundamentally inappropriate attitude to the business.

My experience of the three main letting categories is that the BLT sector can be both worst and best as it is loosely controlled. The controls put in place by some authorities probably do more to encourage good providers to take property off the market than terrify the true rogues.

HAs were supposed to take the public provision ethos from the LAs but have the ability to have access to finance to build more. In practice many HAs have lost the ethos and are beginning to behave like private providers and not the best ones either.

My best experiences have been with LAs. But their stock is pitiful and being continually reduced. It can lead to the terribly decanting as in the E&C debacle but on the other hand I have found Southwark to be very good elsewhere. Or at least better than Lewisham.

Perhaps John &Tim if we wish to discuss the letting models further we should adjourn to the Town Pub as it isn't a specific Sydenham issue as the OP has pointed out. Do you want to start?

Stuart

[John H]

I have only discussed the issue as it affects Sydenham. That the same issues affect other areas is "by the way".

The state of the property market here is individual to Sydenham. Therefore it is appropriate to discuss this issue here. When considering a local issue it is necessary to look at the overall picture in order to make any sense of it.

[JMLF]

Not sure if helpful to anyone here but seeing this I thought was quite timely so thought would chuck it on here. Make of the article what you will but SE26 is reportedly one of the area’s “bucking the trend” and is still “hot” in comparison to the vast majority of London (although not mentioned in the article SE26 is on the pictographic).

https://www.homesandproperty.co.uk/prop ... ml#gallery

[Tim Lund]

Not sure if helpful to anyone here but seeing this I thought was quite timely so thought would chuck it on here. Make of the article what you will but SE26 is reportedly one of the area’s “bucking the trend” and is still “hot” in comparison to the vast majority of London (although not mentioned in the article SE26 is on the pictographic).

https://www.homesandproperty.co.uk/prop ... ml#gallery

Sure - little doubt in my mind that in relative terms, it's good value for money here

[John H]

Sydenham was blighted for years by the threat of the new South Circular. One of the three proposed routes was through Sydenham. In the end the route through Forest Hill was selected and then the money ran out.

Because the removal of the threat coincided with a collapse, generally, in house prices we never saw the recovery from that and Estate Agents factored in the reduced values in Sydenham... as though it were to do with the desirability or otherwise of the area rather than a temporary blighting.

The increase in values that should have arisen from the bringing of the Tube has likewise not yet had an effect and again because of that coinciding with a depressed market.

In time the fact that this is actually a very desirable area with ready access to the largest parks in South London and easy access into the City, West End and Docklands will be discovered. Unfortunately the local Estate Agents are not prepared to promote the area. They focus on local demand only and do not have the network of offices to be able to promote the area to the sort of people this area should attract i.e. people moving to London to work.

In my view it is better to use an estate agent with a national network. I see Foxton's are beginning to list properties in Sydenham.

[alywin]

I notice that Sydenham was the featured area of London in this week's Evening Standard property section - although I'm not sure it made it such a tempting-sounding place to live that people will be rushing to buy here!

[JGD]

Hmmm- a bad example of self-inflicted blight masquerading as a puff piece perhaps (posted originally in the asylum for obvious reasons):

A 13 Feb piece in ES in their Homes and Property section at pp28-29.

A statement in the very first para seems to highlight the priorities of the community's engagement.

"Locals join in with everything ..... to campaigning to save the Bell Green gas-holders."

https://1drv.ms/u/s!AuV6NOp8I8tAkgX-2L5UWcvr-e1d

is this how the community would have itself viewed by outsiders and prospective incomers ? The gas-holders ? A priority ?

Everybody ?

Most of the residents of Sydenham cannot even see the gas-holders from their homes.

[Robin Orton]

I can't see the gasholders from my home, but I wish I could - they're lovely.

And I'd certainly be attracted to an area if I knew it was one where the community got together to fight for the preservation of its heritage.

[JMLF]

Apart from inaccuracy (Alexandra cottages are in Penge and I could be wrong but if it’s where I think it is Albion villas is FH maybes?) I thought the weirdest thing was how little there was about the actual shops/events/activities. A huge proportion was taken up by the history of Sydenham which was essentially labelling who is on the Sydenham Centre Mural and peddling properties. Nothing on the theatre productions/community events or the brewery/taproom there let alone very little on the actual shops/coffee places/restaurants or biggest events like the arts festival. Just a bit odd if you ask me if trying to sell it as a place to go to but speaking very little of the actual things to do or use there.

[JGD]

I can't see the gasholders from my home, but I wish I could - they're lovely.

And I'd certainly be attracted to an area if I knew it was one where the community got together to fight for the preservation of its heritage.

We know this to be your opinion, Robin - and it is to be respected - but they are not lovely.

An the subject matter experts in the matter - Historic England - have declined to list them as they are just that, unlovely, unloved and redundant piles of post industrial scrap.

And with no-one who loves them enough to ante up the funds necessary to preserve them if they are to be saved and that includes the LB Lewisham who are additionally terrified of setting a precedent for other property owners in similar circumstances.

Did I mention that the demolition is now well underway.