Current state of the property market in Sydenham

[alywin]

I'm wondering about the state of the property market in Sydenham, flats in particular, and wonder whether anyone has a feel for the current situation? I know there have been numerous new builds of flats in various parts which don't appear to be shifting very fast, and guess the market may be a bit saturated, but what about older flats and maisonettes, say those around 100 years old or so? Thanks for any feedback.

[The Clown]

I’d say “flat”.
A house sold on my road after Christmas for the asking price that it was on at originally in 2016. At the time the owner was holding out for more, but didn’t get it.
However it did, eventually sell, at asking, this year.
The shortage of affordable family homes will keep these types of properties relatively buoyant. The margins on converting property to flats is higher, so has drawn the developers, so I suspect this market may suffer a little more because of the availability.
But I’m no expert
It’s been often said that you should buy to live, not to invest; that’s good advice in this market, as making money on property will likely be a longer game in the future.

[John H]

The market is in the doldrums recently due, mostly, to project fear. Once that is out of the way you will be able to judge. Flats seem to sell well and properties up to around £650,000. Sydenham, however, is due for a surge as a variety of improvements come our way... If Sivyer's yard does finally disappear then houses around about it will see a sudden increase in value.

Sydenham is still a very cheap area, relative to London at large. Its convenient transport links should be making it a hotspot at present. Its proximity to open country (effectively) is not generally known. Maybe Sydenham residents should be broadcasting its benefits.

[mikej]

The doldrums are caused by the unknown effects that Brexit will have on the market.
It is impossible to predict what the effects will be, but few are anticipating many price increases after Brexit.
Many are expecting a fall in prices, perhaps as much as 30%.
That would give many opportunities for first time buyers, which would be very positive, but such falls might well lead to problems including people being in negative equity. Meaning such people might be unable to move.

Those points apply are in the relative short term of course.

I saw an article in a paper which highlighted a family that are selling their house and going to rent until after Brexit. The idea being, they will be able to buy a larger house for their money if prices fall significantly.
The longer that they are "stuck" paying rent, however, means that those rent payments will eat into their capital.

[alywin]

Yes, and as I'm only too well aware, you can end up renting for a lot longer than you ever intended, and that can scupper the best-laid plans. Personally, I wouldn't risk it.

[simon]

I sold my house in Knighton Park Road in November 2017 for the asking price after being on the market for just a fortnight and have been renting since. I'm looking to buy again so have been monitoring the market closely.

When I sold my house there was a similar property for sale on Hilmore Grove for £100k more. Its still on the market, having swithched agwents and been reduced by £60k in the Autumn.

I think the above epitomises the state of the market; people who have unrealistic price expectations cant sell, while those who are realistic can. Watching how quickly the properties marketed by Property World sell compared to those of Pedder illustrates the point.

The are other regional national issues that have an affect as well. I note the difficulties Mann Countrywide have experienced and the slow state of the market probably explaines why KFH havent moved in to the Greyhound site.

Irrespective of the consequences of Brexit I cant really see prices rising this year and I think we might see more falls.

[Tim Lund]

In the short term, the rent / buy decision is pretty well all about Brexit. There are those who insist a No Deal will be just fine, but it's probably not prudent to do so. The downside, which would come from London being a much less attractive place to live is huge. I don't think it's anything like priced in yet.

I'd also say Brexit dominates in the medium term - say out to five years. Even with Mrs May's deal, the UK is a much less attractive place for other European citizens to come to live. We have also had a fair amount of new supply, so that in real terms rents have been falling in London & the SE for about three years. That is likely to continue, so I'd not see a hit to property prices as necessarily a buying opportunity.

[John H]

Brexit is not an issue. Project fear is the problem. The disgraceful misconduct of the political appointee at the Bank of England is a large component of project fear. Note well how his (far more experienced and significantly better qualified) predecessor disagrees with everything this Irish Canadian says on the subject.

[stuart]

Brexit is not an issue. Project fear is the problem.

viewtopic.php?f=9&t=19403

On a personal note my daughter is looking to upgrade from a one bed flat in FH to a three bed home. She foolishly sees me as a wise sage in terms of property investment. I said, of course, in these times of uncertainty it may be best to hold-off buying as there could be a significant drop in prices if we exit the EU badly creating nasty negative equity situations but an opportunity to buy back in at better prices.

Oh Dad, you are so right she agreed. What we will do now is sell the flat, move back in with you and await the crash.

She was surprised when I suddenly adjusted my stance that, perhaps on reflection, the crash assumption could be overstated. Better to just sit it out. Perhaps there are more important things than Brexit?

Stuart
PS Sydenham/FH doesn't appear in her searches. Much too expensive despite both earning with a decent income with 7x salary mortgage offered.

[vbsydenham]

Brexit is not an issue. Project fear is the problem. The disgraceful misconduct of the political appointee at the Bank of England is a large component of project fear. Note well how his (far more experienced and significantly better qualified) predecessor disagrees with everything this Irish Canadian says on the subject.

What has his nationality got to do with his fitness for office? And why did you include his Irish citizenship but omit his British citizenship?

[maestro]

VBR in "I'm exposing yet another racist!" shocker.

[vbsydenham]

Who said anything about racism? I'm just interested in the rationale for including only two of his three nationalities in a critique of his performance at the bank.

[Tim Lund]

Brexit is not an issue. Project fear is the problem. The disgraceful misconduct of the political appointee at the Bank of England is a large component of project fear. Note well how his (far more experienced and significantly better qualified) predecessor disagrees with everything this Irish Canadian says on the subject.

It may not be an issue for you, but for many people it is, which you can see from looking at how markets move. Getting market moves right is about being able to step back from your own views, and knowing what others think, and how that might change. You may call it Project Fear, but that fact is that a lot of people are afraid, and also that a lot of people, me included, still think there's a chance that we won't leave the EU. After all, it only takes Parliament to take back control, and revoke Article 50. If we are kidding ourselves, as of course we may be, there are many who are going to dump UK assets, including housing in the short run. Up to you to see that as a buying opportunity, of course.

[LawriePark]

Brexit will be a massive success for young working people if it causes a correction in house prices and makes London affordable for them.

It’s unsurprising to see the pro-Remain attitudes of middle-aged property owners here.

[TredownMan]

Unless the correction is driven by higher interest rates, suppressed wages and tougher borrowing conditions. And if builders respond, predictably, by building less, when the only real way to address the housing crisis faced by young Londoners is a sustained increase in supply.

[stuart]

Brexit will be a massive success for young working people if it causes a correction in house prices and makes London affordable for them.

Who do you think will be the most likely to go into negative equity:

a) Young homeowners
b) Middle-aged homeowners
c) Old (mostly mortgage free) homeowners

Stuart

[Tim Lund]

Before this gets shunted into the Town Pub, I'll just say I think SE London is better value than other parts, but that won't be much consolation.

[Tim Lund]

Brexit will be a massive success for young working people if it causes a correction in house prices and makes London affordable for them.

Who do you think will be the most likely to go into negative equity:

a) Young homeowners
b) Middle-aged homeowners
c) Old (mostly mortgage free) homeowners

Stuart

Indeed.

Unless the correction is driven by higher interest rates, suppressed wages and tougher borrowing conditions. And if builders respond, predictably, by building less, when the only real way to address the housing crisis faced by young Londoners is a sustained increase in supply.

I think the impact on real demand will kick in before anything coming from higher interest rates.

A No Deal Brexit hit to people's housing equity and to incomes from businesses struggling to operate is more likely to result in another bail out operation for the banks from the Bank of England. I think higher interest rates will only come later

I still agree about needing *more* housing supply, even though the balance has already started moving the right way. The number to look at is the percentage of income young people have to pay to live in London. This is still way too high. Brexit would never be my preferred way of fixing the problem!

[stuart]

Given that no-one but existing property owners want price rises and price cuts has dangerous consequences - the least worst policy is stable prices (letting inflation effectively reduce the real price over time). This also helps if we want to ramp up supply as developers don't want to risk building into a price slump.

That means managing supply and demand. The most obvious way is through the availability of mortgages. But this doesn't help affordability in the short to medium term. We should also be giving equal consideration to both new and recent homeowners as the repayments effectively throw them into poverty at the very time they need help if they want to have families.

The fairest way of doing that is not through the 'gift to new houseowners' publicity stunts by both parties but by reducing their effective taxation rates. Middle aged and older houseowners had mortgage tax relief to get them through this difficult period but this was at a cost to poorer folks in the rented sector - so is not the way.

Reducing taxation on the younger sector can only be responsibly done by increasing taxation on another. Older houseowners have that - their property (tax-free) assets dwarfing everything else. So a property asset tax looks one way. Perhaps not payable out of income (difficult for the elderly) but maybe equity release to HMRC in lieu. This would also help with the problem of new homeowners lucky to have old homeowner parents able to outbid and inflate prices to make the first step on the ladder even more inequitable.

However many elderly homeowners see their property equity as the savings for future care home costs. So you would have to solve that problem at the same time. The bottom line is there are no silver bullets to remake the broken property market. Not Brexit, not arguing about Brexit. Indeed a broken political system that can't cope with Brexit ain't the machine to find a way out of our property dilemmas.

Stuart

[Tim Lund]

That means managing supply and demand. The most obvious way is through the availability of mortgages.

To me, the most obvious way is allowing increased supply when housing becomes unaffordable