Saving Pubs / Housing People

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Tim Lund
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Re: Saving Pubs / Housing People

Post by Tim Lund »

There's an interesting paper published recently by Prof Henry Overman of the LSE, entitled "The UK Housing Crises". His conclusion is simplicity itself: "The real solution is straightforward: build more housing." Some things, you think, you shouldn't need a professor to tell you, but it should help to beat down all the plausible special pleading one hears.

What interested me most in the paper is the light shed on the politics of it all, and the current move to 'localism'
Increasing the supply of housing

The under-supply of housing in the UK has been a long-term problem, which the previous government was unable to tackle effectively. Labour was slow to recognise that something needed to be done about the planning system. Once the problem became clear, top-down regional plans were introduced, which tried to force local authorities to build more housing.

These plans were very unpopular with local authorities in parts of the country that needed more housing and were quickly abolished by the coalition government. The new ‘national planning framework’ intends to replace the topdown system with more ‘localism’ and a package of financial incentives to encourage development – with a target of 240,000 new homes to be built each year (see Nathan and Overman, 2011).

These reforms should be welcomed for a number of reasons, but the government may yet regret the immediate abolition of regional plans
He welcomes this move to localism, but is he aware of how completely local authority identified representatives of local opinion take no notice of the incentives to allow more housing in their areas?
Eagle
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Re: Saving Pubs / Housing People

Post by Eagle »

Tim
The Times today had a great idea to lower property prices.
Problem is not lack of land , devolopers have permission to construct over 400k new homes but chose not to because of the lack of finance available to buyers.
Simply to flood the market with easy credit would cause an Irish or Spanish problem.

Main cause is house prices far to high. In our area about double the historic cost ratio.

Their idea is that for all NEW houses they have a built in agreement that the property must be lived in by the owner. This would stop these parasites buying up flats and houses and letting at rachman like prices.
True would cause a two tier housing market but as years go by more and more new houses subject to this rule.
Younger people should be able more easily to afford new properties.

Why has no one thought of this great idea before.........
Tim Lund
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Re: Saving Pubs / Housing People

Post by Tim Lund »

Eagle wrote:Tim
The Times today had a great idea to lower property prices.
Problem is not lack of land , developers have permission to construct over 400k new homes but chose not to because of the lack of finance available to buyers.
As I've written before, it's a fair to ask why developers aren't building when they have all these permissions. Previously I've suggested that they are also in some way speculating with their land banks - like so many others, they don't quite believe prices are going to fall, so they don't do what rational agents would do in this situation, i.e. develop what they can as quickly as possible. Part of their rationale could be that a serious fall in property prices will be so unpopular that they they don't believe any government will allow it; if so, they will be acting like the justly despised bankers who gamed an implicit government guarantee for the business they were in.

You add here another reason why nothing is happening, e.g. the lack of finance for new houses. The problem with this argument is that there clearly is some finance available - ask the developers of 18 Longton Avenue. With the market as thin as it is at the moment, you don't need too much of this to finance the supply which will bring prices down.

It may be that we are not looking widely enough for money to finance property; I would like to see the development of efficient, responsible large scale private sector providers of rental properties - such as exist in Germany, where 'getting on the property ladder' has never been a normal aspiration. Funding for such would come from institutions, as it does there - e.g. pension funds, insurance companies. It's something talked about here, but the price has to be right - which of course goes for any kind of financing. It should not be a way people's pensions are used to bail out property speculators!

I wonder also about that figure of permissions for 400k new homes - where? Are they where people want to buy? There have to be areas where it's easier for developers to get planning permission, and even though they know they aren't where people most want to live, it would make sense for them to secure such permissions where they can.
Eagle wrote: Simply to flood the market with easy credit would cause an Irish or Spanish problem.
Absolutely. At the moment is it easy credit which is keeping house prices up. To get things moving, we need prices to adjust down, and sooner rather than later.
Eagle wrote: Main cause is house prices far to high. In our area about double the historic cost ratio.
That's not the cause, that's the problem!
Eagle wrote:
Their idea is that for all NEW houses they have a built in agreement that the property must be lived in by the owner. This would stop these parasites buying up flats and houses and letting at rachman like prices.
Truly bonkers. It would amount to cutting off the very source of funding for new property which could get our housing market into something more like the rationality of that in Germany. It would also require a definition of 'NEW' - how long does a property remain 'new'? Who would monitor it? Who on earth came up with this one - do tell!
Eagle
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Re: Saving Pubs / Housing People

Post by Eagle »

Tim
Cannot understand why you think it is bonkers. It is speculators buying for rent that are driving up, prices and causing resentment in flats with existing Leaseholders as renters have not got the same interest in the block as owners ( sweeping statement I know , but on average I believe correct ).
We cannot have more and more people letting for life as how do they pay the rent when they retire???????

New homes could remain for ever in this new category . I appreciate houses will split into two price levels , but no harm in that.
Builders will have no incentive to delay building if it is for ever.
The Buy to Let fraternity are Parasites that are keeping the prices high for both purchase and rent.
CaptainCarCrash
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Re: Saving Pubs / Housing People

Post by CaptainCarCrash »

Eagle wrote:The Buy to Let fraternity are Parasites that are keeping the prices high for both purchase and rent.
Stone the crows, I agree with you.
leenewham
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Re: Saving Pubs / Housing People

Post by leenewham »

I have to admit I'm with Eagle on this one too, sounds like a sensible idea.

This raises the question: should property be investments or places for people to live in (i.e. a home)? I have friends that have houses they live in that they treat like investments ("I paint the walls cream incase I need to rent it out"). I find this rather sad. Should we be making homes rather than investments?

Perhaps we should stop referring to the 'housing market'?
Tim Lund
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Re: Saving Pubs / Housing People

Post by Tim Lund »

As long as ‘buy-to-let’-er let as well as buy, their tenants are not pushing up prices elsewhere, even if they take supply out of the market for owner occupation, so the impact on prices is neutral. If demand from ‘buy-to-let’-ers actually means that developers produce new build for them, then it takes pressure off prices for owner occupation. Only if ‘buy-to-let’-ers are hording empty properties can they be driving prices up. I doubt very much whether there are more unlet speculative buy-to-let properties, than properties which have been built because of investment demand from buy-to-letters. If you have evidence that there is, please share it.
Tim Lund
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Re: Saving Pubs / Housing People

Post by Tim Lund »

mikecg wrote:
Eagle wrote:The Buy to Let fraternity are Parasites that are keeping the prices high for both purchase and rent.
Stone the crows, I agree with you.
I struggle to see any difference between a 'Buy-to-Let'-er and other private sector landlords. It may be that you see all private sector landlords as Parasites, etc., but there is no way that they, as a groups, can combine to keep prices up. Each of them individually has an interest in getting their particular properties let - that's how they bring in income.
Tim Lund
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Re: Saving Pubs / Housing People

Post by Tim Lund »

leenewham wrote:Perhaps we should stop referring to the 'housing market'?
We could stop talking about the housing market, but there would still be a market as long as people are allowed to buy, sell, let and rent property. Would you have people invent a new word, which you would then try to ban, requiring yet another new word, to be banned again, so ad infinitum? Or would you prefer the complete socialisation of the housing stock? Have Hexagon or L&Q tell you when you had to move, because you had more rooms than you need?

Please - keep it simple. The solution is more housing - places for people to live at reasonable costs, live their lives. Why is this so hard?
Eagle
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Re: Saving Pubs / Housing People

Post by Eagle »

Problem is Tim usually the BTL'ers have more available funds and can outbid the people wanting to buy a house to live in , especially the poor first time buyers.

Do we want a country of rich landlords with very few young people able to own their own home.
Same article said owner occupiers now down to lowest percentage since the 70's. Also big difference then majority of renters were older people on controlled rents , whilst now adays the young are the renters.
Whilst people with nest eggs can only earn 2% or so , they can earn more buying and renting . Whilst I sympathise with the low interest they should not be able to upset the market.

Very sad and not a good recipe for the future.

Tim You seem to be against the suggestion because you think it will not work? Am I correct.
It could be worth try??? Nothing to lose.
Tim Lund
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Re: Saving Pubs / Housing People

Post by Tim Lund »

Eagle wrote:Tim
It is speculators buying for rent that are driving up, prices and causing resentment in flats with existing Leaseholders as renters have not got the same interest in the block as owners ( sweeping statement I know , but on average I believe correct ).
In what ways might non-resident investors have a different interest to residents? Clearly not financial. I can see that if residents put a lot of TLC into maintaining the common gardens, or any other common asset, the non-resident investors will to some extent be free-riding on the residents. In the wider scheme of things, this will not be a big problem, and there is no reason why sensible property management agreements can't be reached.
Eagle wrote:We cannot have more and more people letting for life as how do they pay the rent when they retire???????
Well, again I refer to Germany, where owner occupation is less than 50%. A typical pattern there is for people to rent during their working lives, when jobs might mean they have to move, and then buy somewhere at retirement. With rents so much lower than here, they can and do manage to afford to save for this at retirement.
Eagle wrote:New homes could remain for ever in this new category . I appreciate houses will split into two price levels , but no harm in that.
There is always harm in introducing unnecessary complications. It's how our tax system got in a mess. It invites fiddling and evasion, and takes unnecessary admin to deal with.
Eagle wrote:Builders will have no incentive to delay building if it is for ever.
The Buy to Let fraternity are Parasites that are keeping the prices high for both purchase and rent.
You're beginning to sound dangerously socialist to me. May I suggest you vote Lewisham People Before Profits next time?
Tim Lund
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Re: Saving Pubs / Housing People

Post by Tim Lund »

Eagle wrote:Problem is Tim usually the BTL'ers have more available funds and can outbid the people wanting to buy a house to live in , especially the poor first time buyers.

Do we want a country of rich landlords with very few young people able to own their own home.
The is a serious big question here - do we want as unequal a society as we have? - to which my answer is 'no'. But the way to achieve this is by a redistributive but simple tax system - see the recent thread on 'How Can we stop Tax Stupidity' - not ridiculous meddling in one area after another of people's freedom to do what they want with their own money.
Eagle wrote:Same article said owner occupiers now down to lowest percentage since the 70's. Also big difference then majority of renters were older people on controlled rents , whilst now adays the young are the renters.
Whilst people with nest eggs can only earn 2% or so , they can earn more buying and renting . Whilst I sympathise with the low interest they should not be able to upset the market.

Very sad and not a good recipe for the future.
Again, look to Germany and various other north European countries. Not such a bad alternative.
Eagle wrote:Tim You seem to be against the suggestion because you think it will not work? Am I correct.
It could be worth try??? Nothing to lose.
There is a lot to loose - time getting the new housing stock we need built. We've wasted the last thirty years already.
Last edited by Tim Lund on 27 Dec 2012 22:16, edited 1 time in total.
Eagle
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Re: Saving Pubs / Housing People

Post by Eagle »

A Socialist Moi????? Though have to admit voting for Harold in 70.

Although now more leaning to The Conservative and Unionist Party I can see that private landlords are upsetting the smooth operation of the housing market.

You keep saying the only solution is build build build. How is that different from Eire or Espana??

We can only build when people can afford to buy.

I agree in Germany more do rent and rent lower but much less densely populated than us.Especially England.
Another article in paper today said pensions will be dead in 20 years. Young not interested in putting money away for years ( unless they are in a Govt sponsored gold plated index linked pension ) . Who will support them in retirement in 20 or 40 years. I expect they believe the state , but they could be in for a nasty shock.
Tim Lund
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Re: Saving Pubs / Housing People

Post by Tim Lund »

Eagle wrote:A Socialist Moi????? Though have to admit voting for Harold in 70.

Although now more leaning to The Conservative and Unionist Party I can see that private landlords are upsetting the smooth operation of the housing market.
Let's get this straight. Do you want there to be private landlords, or do you just not want private landlords who upset the smooth operation of the housing market? If the former, then you're saying people should either be owner occupiers, or live in social housing. I think that's barmy. If you're saying the latter, then what is it that private landlords do that interferes with the smooth operation of the housing market? I'd agree that buying properties and deliberately keeping them empty in the expectation of prices going up - speculation - will interfere as you suggest, but we know there really is not that much of this happening in London. As Weeble pointed out, using figures from a link Lee himself posted, the scale of housing need dwarfs any amount of property being deliberately kept empty here. Prices now are stagnant, but rents are high; a private sector landlord would be crazy to keep property deliberately empty.
Eagle wrote:You keep saying the only solution is build build build. How is that different from Eire or Espana??
You refer to housing bubbles, which have now burst. Once upon a time there was a bubble in tulip bulbs - should we still ban Shannons for selling them? Markets can misfunction, and mass delusions - such as that property can only ever go up in price - are often the reason why. Not at all the same as level headed investors, maybe older people who want a better return on their savings than they can get from the bank, who see that they can do this by buying somewhere where a younger person, without their own savings yet, can live in the meantime. No reason to condemn the private rented sector out of hand.
Eagle wrote:We can only build when people can afford to buy.
We've been through this. There is plenty of money out there which would be happy to invest in new build for rent, albeit at the right price. That's why making market prices for housing more affordable will help get the new build we want.
Eagle wrote:I agree in Germany more do rent and rent lower but much less densely populated than us. Especially England.
Sorry - just been told my dinner's ready - back later ... so to continue ...

Pretty well everywhere, and in every phase of history since the collapse of the Roman Empire, people have tended to move from less to more densely populated areas. There are numerous reasons why, and countless libraries written to describe and explain, but in few instances have people actually been forced into cities. The first key reason is that most people find it more interesting and stimulating to live somewhere with other people around. Not all, of course, but most. The second reason is that it is more economical - you don't have to travel such long distances to your place of work, or where you buy and sell good / services. If you live close together you also save heating costs, and your municipality - sometimes a private sector utility - can provide security, fuel, sanitation and other services more economically, thanks to returns to scale. Of course, it's only possible if farming techniques advance enough to free people from manual toil on the fields - but they have advanced, and they still are advancing.

Against this there have always been reactionaries, who just don't like social and technological change, whatever it is, and will insist that the old ways are best. Witness number one here is Rousseau, who argued that "man is born free, but is everywhere in chains". It's a line that sold a lot of books, and is often felt to have led to some of the worst excesses of the French Revolution; in my life time anti-progressive, back to the land regimes have led to appalling losses of human life, in Mao's China and Pol Pot's Cambodia.

This sort of anti-urban reaction is expressed rather more benignly when, in acts of conspicuous consumption, people who have made enough money living in cities, demonstrate to others how successful they have been by buying a little place in the country - and it has to be admitted, it carries a lot of social cachet.

Trying to tell ordinary people that they are wrong to want to live in cities is unrealistic and patronising. Cities are where the jobs are in a modern economy.

As was the case in 1844, when Engels wrote about the Condition of the Working Classes. By modern standards Manchester was a hell hole, and by the standards of Engels' bourgeois upbringing. But not by the standards of the grinding poverty of contemporary rural life, which was far different from the version peddled by romantic reactionaries terrified of the newly rising power of middle-class manufacturers and the organised working classes.
Eagle wrote:Another article in paper today said pensions will be dead in 20 years. Young not interested in putting money away for years ( unless they are in a Govt sponsored gold plated index linked pension ) . Who will support them in retirement in 20 or 40 years. I expect they believe the state , but they could be in for a nasty shock.
They could indeed, as could you be if you think the state is going to ban private sector landlords. So remember that youthful dalliance with Socialism, and join Lewisham People Before Profit now!
Last edited by Tim Lund on 27 Dec 2012 22:21, edited 3 times in total.
14BradfordRoad
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Re: Saving Pubs / Housing People

Post by 14BradfordRoad »

Eagle wrote:A Socialist Moi????? Though have to admit voting for Harold in 70.

Although now more leaning to The Conservative and Unionist Party I can see that private landlords are upsetting the smooth operation of the housing market.
What??? Only leaning to the Conservatives? Understatement or what?? :lol: :lol:

Eagle, We all know there's a Socialist just waiting to get out. Hope you are having a
great Christmas mate. :wink: :wink:

I have some great ideas of what to do with greedy landlords! :lol: :lol:
Eagle
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Re: Saving Pubs / Housing People

Post by Eagle »

I think the young tend to be idealistic , which is a good thing. As one gets older and wiser one tends to see the whole picture.

I consider my politics middle of the strasse , and indeed meet many people whose views are far to the right of mine.

I even voted for the Liberals once in the 80's. Believe the candidate was a Miss or Ms Titley, maybe it was the name that grabbed me.

Tim your reply incredibly long and will take time to digest as have been out all day.
CaptainCarCrash
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Re: Saving Pubs / Housing People

Post by CaptainCarCrash »

Tim Lund wrote: So remember that youthful dalliance with Socialism, and join Lewisham People Before Profit now!
I'm waiting for lets stick a toff's head on a pike re-enactment day instead which coincides with the champagne socialist battering weekender.

:lol:

I've found a new guru, his name is Ian Bone :D
14BradfordRoad
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Re: Saving Pubs / Housing People

Post by 14BradfordRoad »

mikecg wrote: I've found a new guru, his name is Ian Bone :D
What? this guy Mike?..: http://www.ianboneandsons.co.uk/
(Specialising in horsebox repairs,amongst other things :? :?) .... :lol: :lol:

Probably the other Ian Bone, yeah?
This one: http://ianbone.wordpress.com/ :wink:
Tim Lund
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Re: Saving Pubs / Housing People

Post by Tim Lund »

From this evening's Standard
the massed ranks of middle-class protesters are up in arms.

... the citizen’s defence of their housing is hardwired into an adversarial planning system. New properties are seen as a threat, developers as villains, councils as their partners in crime.

Yet the country is sleepwalking with increasing speed into a housing nightmare. A chronic scarcity of homes is dashing the hopes of young people, dislocating family life and diminishing economic recovery. It impacts on almost everything from the cost of living — one study found the net cost of planning constraint to be 4p in every pound of income — to the environment and transport.

A slew of statistics underscores the insanity of our housing and planning policies. Britain is building fewer homes than during any peacetime for close to a century; it is generally assumed one-third of the number needed, but one government expert put the figure at one-sixth. In London, where the population rises by about 100,000 a year, fewer than 18,000 new homes were completed in 2011....

Britain, and especially London, needs more housing, better housing and cheaper housing. There is no shortage of land, just a system out of sync and a dearth of land that can be built upon. If we want to resolve this crisis, we must tackle an archaic planning system and take on myopic myths over a land that remains green and very pleasant.
Of course, our local amenity societies are not part of the problem, but it would be nice to see them try to be part of the solution.
Eagle
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Re: Saving Pubs / Housing People

Post by Eagle »

Tim
You have your most favoured subject again.

I agree we have a problem
If population of London growing by 100k a year the questions should be asked why , especially when London has some of the highest unskilled unemployment rates in the UK.

I suggest not a nationwide problem as often seeing stories of whole empty streets in some towns.

Also Developers have planning permission to build 400k houses , but in most cases choose not to do
as people cannot get finance to buy.

Does anyone know why the flats being built at the Downham end of Southend Lane ( Old Wetherspoon ), taking so long to complete.
Seems again though all so called social housing that of course means everyone else paying.
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