Full story here http://www.newsshopper.co.uk/news/48472 ... ncy_votes/Lewisham West and Penge
Labour 1/7
Conservatives 5/1
Lib Dem 16/1
Greens 100/1
Nick Long 100/1
Election odds
Election odds
Just saw this on the Newsshopper site:
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SydenhamHillAndy
- Posts: 116
- Joined: 20 Jul 2007 15:01
- Location: SE26
Yeah, they are pretty safe in this area. Majority of 12,000 or so at the last election.
Depends if their traditional support is motivated to turn out this time. There does seem to be a strong dislike of Brown so I can see Lib Dem and Tory number going up substantially.
Personally, I don't see how anyone could vote for Brown. I've tended to vote Labour in the past but the idea of 5 more years of this clown is enough to have me vote for literally anyone else.
Anyhow. Looks like really safe odds. £100 would make you £14 or so.....
Depends if their traditional support is motivated to turn out this time. There does seem to be a strong dislike of Brown so I can see Lib Dem and Tory number going up substantially.
Personally, I don't see how anyone could vote for Brown. I've tended to vote Labour in the past but the idea of 5 more years of this clown is enough to have me vote for literally anyone else.
Anyhow. Looks like really safe odds. £100 would make you £14 or so.....
The least safe of the constituencies according to the National Shopper article, but bearing in mind some are 1-100 that isn't saying much!
The Tory candidate visited me a little while ago, he claimed that due to a change in boundaries they will likely have more voters this time, but a 12,000 majority is rather a lot to overcome (even allowing for Mr Brown!)
The Tory candidate visited me a little while ago, he claimed that due to a change in boundaries they will likely have more voters this time, but a 12,000 majority is rather a lot to overcome (even allowing for Mr Brown!)
SydenhamHillAndy wrote:
Personally, I don't see how anyone could vote for Brown. I've tended to vote Labour in the past but the idea of 5 more years of this clown is enough to have me vote for literally anyone else.
Well if you vote Labour you aren't just voting for Brown are you. And if you vote anything other than Labour you are basically saying you prefer David Cameron. Is that really what you want?!
I think that this will be the most interesting General Election ever but not in a good way. I feel we are finally starting to see the 'cult of celebrity' permeate all facets of society. I have always been a blue but even I see Cameron as just a public-friendly soundbite guy. I haven't the first idea as to what his campaign pledges might be nor does he seem to have a firm manifesto on anything other than "we won't do what Labour have done/will do". It's wooly politics, to put it mildly.
Now - as both parties move somewhere left of centre - you have the leaders as one of the true differentiators.
A bit like when JFK was getting hammered by Nixon and yet once they had the televised debate, JFK swept into power, on the strength of him looking good on TV...
Cameron is JFK. Hence the Conservatives putting his face on their billboards. I can't stand the chap, personally. He gets his a** handed to him on a plate by Brown every PM's question time...tells all you need to know.
I fear we shall regret giving Cameron a mandate to govern purely on the fact that he's not the blithering idiot that Brown is.
Now - as both parties move somewhere left of centre - you have the leaders as one of the true differentiators.
A bit like when JFK was getting hammered by Nixon and yet once they had the televised debate, JFK swept into power, on the strength of him looking good on TV...
Cameron is JFK. Hence the Conservatives putting his face on their billboards. I can't stand the chap, personally. He gets his a** handed to him on a plate by Brown every PM's question time...tells all you need to know.
I fear we shall regret giving Cameron a mandate to govern purely on the fact that he's not the blithering idiot that Brown is.
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SydenhamHillAndy
- Posts: 116
- Joined: 20 Jul 2007 15:01
- Location: SE26
Unfortunately you are voting for Gordon Brown when you vote Labour, the role is effectively presidential in nature these days and, whether you believe him or not, he has stated that he intends to stay the full term if elected.Well if you vote Labour you aren't just voting for Brown are you. And if you vote anything other than Labour you are basically saying you prefer David Cameron. Is that really what you want?!
In a choice between David Cameron and Gordon Brown I find it hard to understand how anyone could choose Brown to be honest but I agree it isn't much of a choice!
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Robin Orton
- Posts: 3380
- Joined: 9 Sep 2008 07:30
- Location: London SE26
I thought this was meant to be a forum for local issues! The candidates declared so far for Sydenham West and Penge are, I believe, Jim Dowd MP (Lab) Cllr Alex Feakes (Lib Dem) Cllr Chris Phillips (Con) and Cllr Romayne Phoenix (Green). Which of these is best qualified to represent the value and aspirations of the good burghers of Sydenham?
Unfortunately, although in theory you vote for Jim Dowd, or not, by doing so you also vote for Gordon Brown. Thats one of many of the things wrong with our system. As Andy says; its a presidential role thse days, but withut a presidential election.
I take some solice from the fact that the price of "no overall majority" has come down recently and the current odds are Tory majority 2/5, Labour majority 17/1 and no overall majority 3/1. I would like to see a huing parliament because then we have a chance of electoral reform; ie: proportional representation, which I think is the only way we're going to move away from the current system, which is inherently unfair.
I take some solice from the fact that the price of "no overall majority" has come down recently and the current odds are Tory majority 2/5, Labour majority 17/1 and no overall majority 3/1. I would like to see a huing parliament because then we have a chance of electoral reform; ie: proportional representation, which I think is the only way we're going to move away from the current system, which is inherently unfair.
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Wispy Wonder
- Posts: 137
- Joined: 11 Jan 2006 22:13
- Location: Sydenham
I don't really understand this point Robin. Are you suggesting we strike out and devolve the local ward/constituency from Westminster? Or would you agree the party with the majority will very much influence our lives, even locally, for the next 5 years?Robin Orton wrote:I thought this was meant to be a forum for local issues!
Debating the relative merits [or otherwise] of Brown V Cameron has a very real bearing on local issues, does it not? As people often take their political ideals from the man at the top and vote accordingly? Especially as both parties are so similar these days what is there actually to set each apart. The daytime T.V. rhetoric of Cameron versus the sour old goat from Scotchland. One does politics American style the other just does politics.
The British populus are playing 'X-Factor' with our futures.
Like it or not, Central Govt issues will always take some precedence over local ones as these are the policies that truly affect us.
Given voter apathy and Simon's point about proportional representation it'll be very interesting to see % turnout. Many people I know just don't bother to vote anymore, which is a real tragedy.
Cameron a showman? Now lets see...who made being a PM about being a showman...oh yes, Labours Tony Blair...and now we are stuck with the woeful clown, Brown. Sorry to say, i used to respect Labour, but honestly, seeing the damage they have done to this country, i just want them out. Not because i want the tories, but because i think the country needs change. Labour have been in power too long now, like the tories were in 1997. We need some fresh faces, fresh ideas, and fresh leadership. As for the suggestion about someone wanting a hung parliament, as 'that way we would end up with proportional representation'...i thought with that idea you end up with a hung parliament all the time! Sorry, the idea of ending up like the Italian parliament doesnt appeal to me. But then we are all different. I always vote, its important to have that right and make the effort.
That's another thing I don't understand – this obsession with 'change' – as though its somehow the opposition's right, just because they haven't been in power for a while. Change for the better would be nice, but the Tories will just be change for the worse.sydeman wrote:Sorry to say, i used to respect Labour, but honestly, seeing the damage they have done to this country, i just want them out. Not because i want the tories, but because i think the country needs change. Labour have been in power too long now, like the tories were in 1997. We need some fresh faces, fresh ideas, and fresh leadership.
Might not be a priority for some of you but I think we will be kissing goodbye to free museum entrance if the Tories get in. Which would be really sad. The Horniman museum has played such a huge role in my family's life over the past few years.
For what probably really goes on behind the scenes....does anyone watch The Thick of It? Very funny, but very worrying!!!!
For what probably really goes on behind the scenes....does anyone watch The Thick of It? Very funny, but very worrying!!!!
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Trawlerman
- Posts: 318
- Joined: 17 Sep 2009 13:56
- Location: Sydenham
Both parties are 'left of centre'? [Did I read right?]...
The politics and economics of undiluted greed are firmly entrenched in this country and they have been since 79. And, whenever the trough-guzzlers have been caught out there is a little slapped wrist and its back to what is laughably called 'business'; that is, gambling with our money and trousering the proceeds or begging for more [and getting it] when it all goes pear-shaped.
Mammon is now our unveiled god and we are all placid sacrifices on his altar.
The politics and economics of undiluted greed are firmly entrenched in this country and they have been since 79. And, whenever the trough-guzzlers have been caught out there is a little slapped wrist and its back to what is laughably called 'business'; that is, gambling with our money and trousering the proceeds or begging for more [and getting it] when it all goes pear-shaped.
Mammon is now our unveiled god and we are all placid sacrifices on his altar.
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digime2007
- Posts: 258
- Joined: 10 Sep 2007 18:26
- Location: Sydenhham
I don't really understand why people give Brown such a hard time. People like sydeman cite "the damage they have done to this country" but never seem to be able to back that up with sensible examples.
Brown wouldn't have been my choice to follow from Blair. I would have preferred a left wing leader (how old fashioned of me!). Having said that though I think the media have stitched Brown up and a lot of people are too easily lead. It's a sad reflection of our times that if you're not a natural in the media spotlight you'll get a hammering regardless of your political ability or policies.
Having said that I would add that I have minimal praise for any politician and I find it a struggle to pick the best from a bad bunch. With low turnouts people talk about voter apathy but that's just not true. People are actively disengaging from politics because they are disillusioned. They are not failing to vote because they can't be bothered they are refusing to vote because they don't see anyone worth voting for.
I think all ballot papers should have a 'none of the above' option at the end. That way people could register their distaste for the political system. Then maybe they'd do something about it.
Brown wouldn't have been my choice to follow from Blair. I would have preferred a left wing leader (how old fashioned of me!). Having said that though I think the media have stitched Brown up and a lot of people are too easily lead. It's a sad reflection of our times that if you're not a natural in the media spotlight you'll get a hammering regardless of your political ability or policies.
Having said that I would add that I have minimal praise for any politician and I find it a struggle to pick the best from a bad bunch. With low turnouts people talk about voter apathy but that's just not true. People are actively disengaging from politics because they are disillusioned. They are not failing to vote because they can't be bothered they are refusing to vote because they don't see anyone worth voting for.
I think all ballot papers should have a 'none of the above' option at the end. That way people could register their distaste for the political system. Then maybe they'd do something about it.
I agree, I'm not sure what 'harm' Labour have done. If anything I think things are much better now than back in 1996.
Infact they have made government much more open, accountable etc. Nearly everything is published online.
The only thing I disagree with is going to war in Iraq, but unless we had a Liberal Democrat government, both Tories and Labour would have gone to war anyway.
The papers blame government for the mistakes of civil servants, but those same civil servants are doing the same job under any government, blue, red or yellow.
The biggest problem we have in this country are the papers. They can sway public opinion left right or centre.
Anyway, the best way to lose friends is to talk about politics (or say you dislike mosaics on public buildings!).
Perhaps better for a chat down the pub or over a curry?
When are people free for a ruby down Garam?
Infact they have made government much more open, accountable etc. Nearly everything is published online.
The only thing I disagree with is going to war in Iraq, but unless we had a Liberal Democrat government, both Tories and Labour would have gone to war anyway.
The papers blame government for the mistakes of civil servants, but those same civil servants are doing the same job under any government, blue, red or yellow.
The biggest problem we have in this country are the papers. They can sway public opinion left right or centre.
Anyway, the best way to lose friends is to talk about politics (or say you dislike mosaics on public buildings!).
Perhaps better for a chat down the pub or over a curry?
When are people free for a ruby down Garam?
When I say digime2007 that people cannot be bothered I think that's a fair assessment. It's not entriely that they cannot be bothered to physically walk to the polling station more they cannot be bothered to vote as they see no net benefit in the short or long term. Different interpretations but the same sorry state of affairs.
As for the war on Iraq leenewham [and Blair's current reticence even with the Chilcot enquiry to apologise for lying] this is something that angers me.
I have a Father who is a serving Major in the infantry, another Brother who is in the signals and a younger Brother who is a Corporal in the infantry. For 6 months out of every 2 years I walk the emotional tightrope as they see active service in Afghanistan and Iraq. Last year my younger Brother Shaun was awarded the Military Cross in the Queen's Honours list. We were very proud but when you consider that this recognition of bravery has a minimum requirement of at LEAST a 50% chance of death within the engagement...
This is little Shaun (or Shaun Whitehead MC, as he's allowed postnominal letters after his name now. As you can imagine he doesn't tire of reminding me of this!):
http://www.kentonline.co.uk/kentonline/ ... leid=58406
As for the war on Iraq leenewham [and Blair's current reticence even with the Chilcot enquiry to apologise for lying] this is something that angers me.
I have a Father who is a serving Major in the infantry, another Brother who is in the signals and a younger Brother who is a Corporal in the infantry. For 6 months out of every 2 years I walk the emotional tightrope as they see active service in Afghanistan and Iraq. Last year my younger Brother Shaun was awarded the Military Cross in the Queen's Honours list. We were very proud but when you consider that this recognition of bravery has a minimum requirement of at LEAST a 50% chance of death within the engagement...
This is little Shaun (or Shaun Whitehead MC, as he's allowed postnominal letters after his name now. As you can imagine he doesn't tire of reminding me of this!):
http://www.kentonline.co.uk/kentonline/ ... leid=58406
Last edited by Ulysses on 15 Jan 2010 11:08, edited 1 time in total.