Who is going to win Beckenham & Penge?

[stuart]

Lewisham West is a foregone conclusion but it's all to play for across the frontier.

Fed up with Opinion Polls, MRP predictions, or St John Curtice? Well I have the definitive guide. The result can be found down any boozer provided you visit a sufficiently representative sample. More in Common have produced the ultimate demographic breakdown - voting intention by favouriite tipple. So we have the Beckeham Sherry sippers (Tory 20% lead) against Penge's cool VK kids (Labour 40% lead).

It's too close to call on Prosecco/Champers now but maybe Election night will see a dramatic swing to the winning party. Enjoy:



Sorry didn't post this to Town Pub 'cos they appear to have run out of booze/drinkers.

[JGD]

Fascinating analysis - and obviously not in the style of St John Curtice.

How does one get involved in polls of this nature?

Do you have to set up your own study or poll group(s)?

Is there funding or allowances granted for the duration of the engagement?

I think we should be told.

[Bovine Juice]

My prediction, based on the seven wards of Beckenham and Penge constituency:

Penge - strong Labour
Anerley - strong Labour
Clock House - Labour
Shortlands - Tory
West Wickham - Tory but good showing by Reform
Beckenham Town - Labour but with good showing by LDs
Eden Park - Marginal Labour

Low 000s majority to Labour
Prosecco drunk in Penge to celebrate

[mikej]

I'm not sure I agree - the Lib Dems have councillors in Beckenham Town and Labour doesn't.

[rbmartin]

I'm not sure I agree - the Lib Dems have councillors in Beckenham Town and Labour doesn't.

Indeed. The Lib Dems gained votes from disillusioned Tories at the local election in Beckenham Town.

The forecasts show that Beckenham and Penge will go Labour however.

[mikej]

I agree. Labour will win Beckenham for the first time ever I believe.
I was merely correcting the wrong statement above.

[admin]

Just checked the election record. Beckenham constituency was created in 1950. It has ALWAYS voted Tory until this time.

[Bovine Juice]

I'm not sure I agree - the Lib Dems have councillors in Beckenham Town and Labour doesn't.

The LDs have a good local councillor in Beckenham Town (Chloe) who was their candidate for the whole constituency but people will have recognised this was a two horse race and many would have voted Labour to ensure the Tories lost. Nobody knows for sure but the fact that LDs came fourth overall rather than third suggests there may have been some tactical voting.

[stuart]

Yes the LDs were concentrating their forces in more winnable seats in south/southwest London.

Vindicated with the results achieved. I doubt they mourn Beckenham too much.

[alywin]

Well, if Chloe remains a councillor, perhaps that won't be a bad thing? I know she's been very communicative, which is more than I can say for certain other councillors.