Lewisham - least safe place in UK

[Sydenham]

This report caught my eye this morning:

http://www.visionofhumanity.org/wp-cont ... Report.pdf

I haven't gone through it in detail but LB Lewisham is apparently the least peaceful place in the United Kingdom.

BBC reported that: "Rates of murder and violent crime have fallen more rapidly in the UK in the past decade than many other countries in Western Europe, researchers say." on their site

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22275280

Has anyone managed to review the report in more detail and is able to summarise what it all means?

[Robin Orton]

Here are a couple of extracts which may be of interest:

INDICATORS
The five indicators are:

Homicides per 100,000 people:The homicide figures include murder, manslaughter, and
infanticide.

Violent Crimes per 100,000 people: IEP uses the FBI’s definition of
violent crime, which encompasses aggravated assault, rape,
and robbery.

Weapons Crime per 100,000 people: Weapons crime encompasses offences involving firearms,
knives, and other dangerous weapons.

Public Disorder Offences per 100,000 people: The public disorder indicator is used as a proxy for perceptions
of crime or fear of crime. Public disorder encompasses violent
disorder and harassment.

Police Officers per 100,000 people:The police officers data does not include Policy Community
Support Officers (PCSOs).

On Lewisham, the last sentence in the passage below is relevant to our very local concerns:

1. LEWISHAM
REGION: London
UKPI SCORE: 4.529

Lewisham is located in the Greater London region and currently
ranks as the least peaceful local authority area in the United
Kingdom. It was the location of a massive street battle in 1977
between the British Union of Fascists [not true - I was there, and it was the NF] and their opponents. In
recent years, knife crime particularly with young people aged
between 13 and 24 has been a cause for concern. In Lewisham
the conception rate amongst under-18 year olds is 70.6 which is
1.8 times the national average of 39 births per 1,000. Over 60%
of households are deprived in housing, education, health and/
or employment.

Lewisham’s homicide rate is more than twice the national
average at 2.5, with the 2011 period being the worst year for
homicides over the last decade with 11 homicides recorded.
The homicide rate in Lewisham has fluctuated from year to year
averaging seven homicides per year while the national trend
has seen a sustained decline in both the number and rate of
homicides.

Weapons crime saw a large increase from 2003 to 2005
and has since declined although it still remains above the
national average of 39 weapons crimes per 100,000 in 2012.
It is important to note that the average over the last decade
was more than double that of the national average. Similarly,
the violent crime rate has also followed the same pattern as
weapons crime: a large increase from 2002 to 2005 and then a
steady decline. Despite decreases in both weapons crime and
violent crime over the recent years, the number of incidents still
remains well above the national trends meaning that Lewisham
receives the worst possible score of 5 for these indicators in
the UKPI
.
The public disorder rate rose to a staggering 1,126 incidents per
100,000 people peaking in 2009, which was more than three
times the 10 year national average, before sharply declining
through to 2012. Most of the crime in Lewisham occurred in the
ward of Lewisham Central.

[Tim Lund]

The pattern described of crime peaking in 2009 chimes with fact that Lewisham was, in 2011, one of the two London boroughs where fewest people thought the "local police are doing a good job", reported in MPS Key Performance Indicators, and commented on here.

[Tim Lund]

This was the reaction of one of my local councillors:



Well, that's one way of shooting the messenger.

[leenewham]

Is he really a cllr and he said that? What a pillock.

[michael]

Is he really a cllr and he said that? What a pillock.

I think what John said has been rather taken out of context.

But I am disappointed that Lewisham Council have not responded to this report with solid data that shows why Lewisham is actually a safer place to live than some other London boroughs. The stats are fairly clear on this matter and the report distorted some of the issues.
Just looking at the March 2013 data for Violence against the person (http://maps.met.police.uk/access.php?ar ... pe-button=) shows that Westminster is much less peaceful than Lewisham.

Borough Crime count
Westminster 581
Ealing 547
Lambeth 533
Southwark 524
Croydon 511
Tower Hamlets 497
Brent 462
Newham 454
Waltham Forest 444
Lewisham 443

The figures for Most serious violence show Lewisham even further down the list. These are just figures from March, but I suspect the overall picture would not be much different. Lewisham has a lower crime rate than most inner London boroughs, but don't take it from me, we need Lewisham to produce an effective rebuttal to this piece of statistical nonsense.

[Eagle]

Statistics as Michael implies can be made to show many things.

However the remarks of the so called Councillor are a disgrace.

[14BradfordRoad]

Statistics as Michael implies can be made to show many things.

As Robin pointed out: It depends on the indicators being used to provide the data in the first place.
Political parties will often cherry pick key indicators to make (or prove) a point. We all know that most
areas will have safer and less safer pocket locations, Lewisham is no exception.

[bensonby]

I actually thought the methodology in this latest report was rather good: they balanced a number of different measures and not just police-published crime rates, for example looking at hospital admissions and so on. It is a well-known issue with "official" crime figures that some crimes and crime-types are under-reported and that police themselves can inconsistently-classify crimes from area to area and from year to year.... this is despite the Home Office Crime Reporting Standards which were introduced a few years ago in an attempt to standardise the reporting of crime.

What should be done next is that finding of the report should be qualified now that they have been quantified. What is meant as a "Violent Crime"? A crime under Section 5 of the Public Order Act 1986 (using words or behaviour to cause harassment, alarm or distress) is recorded as a violent crime alongside Assaults Occasioning GBH (e.g. stabbings) wheras Drunk and Disorderly Behaviour (which can be indistinguishable from S.5) is not even recorded as a crime for counting purposes. So, does "x" amount of violent crime actually mean "x" amount of stabbings or does it mean lots of s.5s and no stabbings?

What sort of "robberies" or "burglaries" are happening and how are they happening? Are they hold ups with guns and knives (robbery) or kids stealing phones off of other kids without weapons (still robbery, still a major problem)? Are they drug-addicts breaking into houses where people are sleeping (burglary)? or are they children breaking into the office in a children's home to steal money from the tin (still burglary)?

Also, we need to critically look at crime profiles - not to muddy the statistics - but to know who is a victim of crime...so that authorities and the wider community can respond effectively to the problem: we all know most homicides are between members of the same family for example.

What proportion of violent crimes involving family members known to one another? (a handful of problem families that just happen to live in the same area can disproportionately affect figures)

What proportion of victims were actively involved in criminality themselves?

What proportion of victims were innocent members of the community walking about in the streets?

and there are many more questions to pose when analysing - and responding to - the various crime problems that we face in Lewisham.

As ever, the headlines are rarely very helpful of themselves.