Rail Franchise fiasco - let Lewisham manage!

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Tim Lund
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Joined: 13 Mar 2008 18:10
Location: Silverdale

Rail Franchise fiasco - let Lewisham manage!

Post by Tim Lund »

Interesting tweet this morning from Lewisham's now part time CEO

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The story he gives a link to is this on the BBC about Department of Transport civil servants getting their calculations wrong on the awarding of the West Coast Mainline franchise.
After learning that his firm had lost the bid in August Sir Richard said he was convinced that civil servants had "got their maths wrong."
If this sort of thing would not be led by a "department" in Lewisham, does that mean that a democratically elected politician such as Lewisham Cabinet member Chris Best would be brought in to make sure the numbers added up? Surely not. As a reminder of what sort of thing you end up with when she tries to do the maths, here is a useful link

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For more on Barry Quirk, see

Barry Quirk on Communities

and sharing his management secrets here
Eagle
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Re: Rail Franchise fiasco - let Lewisham manage!

Post by Eagle »

Seems like the PM got rid of the wishy washy lady minister just in time.

Guess the new man will sort it out.

Civil Servants if responsible should be brought to book and lose all pension rights in guilty.
Bazman76
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Joined: 9 Aug 2011 16:29
Location: SE26

Re: Rail Franchise fiasco - let Lewisham manage!

Post by Bazman76 »

Well he didn't get rid of her in time, because the screw up still occurred?

Plus if she is liable for her civil servants (which she should be) isn't Cameron just as liable for her?

Ah the omnishambles continues.

All pails into significance next to the sad plight on the UK economy, we are now one of the worst performing economies in Europe (excluding the PIIGS), and this was when we were meant to have returned to robust growth (according to Osborne's pan), yet Osborne still has his job?
Tim Lund
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Joined: 13 Mar 2008 18:10
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Re: Rail Franchise fiasco - let Lewisham manage!

Post by Tim Lund »

I wouln't focus on the apparent failings of Justine Greening, which can probably be summed up by saying she trusted her senior civil servants to be competent. It looks now as if she was too trusting, but we all depend on some element of trust in our work colleagues. I think it's more interesting to know how the civil servants can have been so incompetent - which is now the subject of an enquiry. There are various possible sorts of reason, which in turn point to deeper reasons. In this case, it appears someone got the results of a calculation wrong. So, the starting point should be who that was - but then who should have checked and who appointed them. Then how the calculation was done - I'd guess on an Excel spreadsheet - it's what people use mostly for financial analysis. But Excel spreadsheets can get complicated quite quickly, and have few safeguards to prevent erroneous data being entered - so they are often wrong - they were a factor in much of the 2008 banking fiascos. So who chose the system - regardless of whether it was Excel, which in expert hands is very useful? Or did they have some bespoke system, developed at ludicrous cost, which would have been harder to see where things were going wrong than with Excel? Then, were there people outside those immediately responsible who might have had a sense that something was wrong? This is where Justine Greening probably can be criticised, especially since she does have a business background - this from Wikipedia
Greening was born in Rotherham, where she attended Oakwood Comprehensive School.[2] She is a graduate of the University of Southampton, where she studied Economics,[3] and has an MBA from the London Business School. Prior to entering Parliament, she trained and qualified[4] as an accountant, before working as an accountant/finance manager for, amongst others, Price Waterhouse Coopers, GlaxoSmithKline and Centrica.
Ask enough questions, and you end up grasping for vague concepts such as the culture of the department - and probably government in general. Did people actually know what they were doing? If people were useless, did they get fired, or moved somewhere else in a face saving exercise, perhaps even promoted to jsutify the decision of whoever appointed the person to the job in the first place? If someone did ever try to work out how the spreadsheets worked, did they get labeled as 'a bit of a techie', so maybe not senior management material? Here's an email I sent to a young economist recently who showed signs of understanding an Excel workbook:
I’m tempted to offer some career advice. In 1979 I quit a job, telling two of the most irritating analysts I had to work with that they were representatives of the failure of the English ruling classes. One of them was this guy - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philip_Augar- who went on to negotiated the sale of Schroders to Citigroup, and then write a book – “The Death of Gentlemanly Capitalism: The Rise and Fall of London's Investment Banks” about our national failures. He thought our problem was to do with attitudes to social class – e.g. that the people at the top of UK thought ‘estates’ were where you shot grouse rather than where you found social housing – whereas I understood the failure as being that even bright state educated students such as he realised that the way to get on was not to understand too much about technology; the reason he was particularly irritating was that he refused ever to run applications I had developed for the team he worked in.

Any rational economist, looking objectively at subsequent career paths, would feel that his attitudes, whatever their intellectual content, had the greater utility. So, if you know what’s good for you, work on the sorts of things which people associate with those destined to rise, e.g. the ancient arts of rhetoric and 'writing courses for Directors', but the idea that Directors should also know how to use workbooks effectively is ludicrous. If you need an IT problem sorted out, just get some junior or outsourced resource to do it.
He replied
I had this conversation with my dad the other day, because he felt that people who actually know how to “do” things (e.g. design airplane engines, computers etc) are often highly skilled but both under compensated and under respected by society (he is an engineer of course). I think that your point about it not being worth understanding technology also speaks to this point, and it is something of an issue in the UK I feel.
But actually, I meant this thread to be about Lewisham, which is why I posted it in the Town Hall, not the Pub. The fact that we can find evident uselessness here in local government is hardly an earth shattering revelation, but it's easier to see where it is, and it's just about possible that commenting on it on this Forum will make a difference.
Tim Lund
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Re: Rail Franchise fiasco - let Lewisham manage!

Post by Tim Lund »

A tweeter who comes out with rather more sense than our CEO is former Labour Councillor, Andrew Milton

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who describes himself on his Twitter profile as "Ex cllr & civil servant. "

The link he gives is to this blog on the NIESR web site - Who's accountable for this spreadsheet? Ministers, civil servants and mistakes makes some of the same points as I made, but is somewhat harsher on Justine Greening, concluding
No remotely competent Minister would accept the explanation "That's what the model says" on an issue like this. So either they didn't ask the right questions, or they were incapable of understanding that they were getting the wrong answers.
Tim Lund
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Joined: 13 Mar 2008 18:10
Location: Silverdale

Re: Rail Franchise fiasco - let Lewisham manage!

Post by Tim Lund »

Another current reflection of the marginalisation of technical skills was in our Dear Future Leader's speech in which he offered a technical baccalaureate for the forgotten 50% who don't currently go to university.

An alternative vision is that of Baroness Warnock, who'd have them learning about the languages and cultures of the ancient world. Turning to our current other, unforgettable 50%, I'd have "Let no one ignorant of accountancy enter here" written above the entrance to all academies where future politicians and civil servants are trained.
Tim Lund
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Joined: 13 Mar 2008 18:10
Location: Silverdale

Re: Rail Franchise fiasco - let Lewisham manage!

Post by Tim Lund »

More on this in the Guardian today
However, Kate Mingay, a former Goldman Sachs executive director, spoke out after being identified as one of the suspended officials. She said: "My role has been inaccurately portrayed, mainly due to statements and other comments made by the Department for Transport itself.

"I would like to make it clear that I did not have lead responsibility for this project; neither I nor any member of my team had any responsibility for the economic modelling for this project, or for any DfT project. Nor did I have any responsibility for the financial modelling in respect of this project."

A televised interview in which the transport secretary, Patrick McLoughlin, referred to "serious errors" has alarmed lawyers. Mingay is being represented by top law firm Mishcon de Reya.

...

Department chiefs asked the franchising team to check the numbers were correct in the summer, when Richard Branson and Virgin first publicly challenged the DfT's expected decision. The official said: "We didn't just ignore [Branson] – we kicked the tyres in July and got back assurances."

Fresh checks were ordered after an admission of minor procedural errors in late August, after Virgin's legal challenge was mounted. But only on Tuesday did consultants discover that the spreadsheet on which all calculations were modelled was fundamentally flawed. The key mechanism, called the GDP resilience model, mixed up real and inflated financial figures and contained elements of double counting.
My emphases.

Well, good to know such things couldn't happen in Lewisham.
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