Hung parliament: what next?

[Chazza]

Starting this thread so that we can all speculate about what's going to happen next.

If I was a betting man, my money would be on the outcome being a minority Tory government, for the following reasons:

- Clegg has already said he won't keep Brown in power. Even if he agreed to be part of the coalition that, judging by Mandleson and Hain's comments, Labour are clearly going to try to build, the party will implode as the various factions scrap over the leadership.

- Clegg would want some form of electoral reform in exchange for going into coalition with the Tories. Cameron won't budge on that one.

Any more for any more?

[Dorian]

Tough call,

Even if Clegg sided with the Clown/Brown they would still not have a majority of seats.

In the current state that the country is in a hung Parliament/ Coalition is the worse possible outcome. Another election perhaps and allow the [peole who didnt vote to vote ?

It would be too much to ask of Gordo to have some morals and do the right thing , seeing as he has less votes than Foot in 1983 and Maggie at her worst showing and fall on his proverbial..........................................

Mind , he would probably mess that up too !

[Chazza]

Hmm, looking at the projections, Labour could govern by forming a coalition of Labour, LibDem, SNP, Plaid Cymru and SDLP MPs. I think that's just about feasible, but far from likely.

[Tim Lund]

I think a Tory minority govt has to be most likely. As Michael Portillo pointed out on the BBC this morning, there's been a stable minority govt in Scotland for the last couple of years. Although personally I support PR, I think a Labour / Lib Dem move to bring down such a minority govt, in which PR would be essential requirement for the Lib Dems, would not play well with the great British public, and it would give Cameron the springboard for the overall majority he naturally wants.

[Dorian]

On reflection , a Lib/Lab coalition would last no more than a year in which time massive public expenditure cuts would have to be made. Not a bad scenario for the Parties not having to be the ones cutting services etc .

Just a thought ?

[Juwlz]

I think it will end up being a Lib Lab pact. yay!

Firstly there'll be a minority Labour government informally supported by the Lib Dems (they'll have to get rid of Brown as part of the deal), then there'll be a referendum on proportional representation within weeks follwed by a proper general election which will end up a Lib Lab pact and the tories will be in oblivion.

They'll also get rid of the house of Lords thus ending conservative hegemony of Britain forever! super-yay!

[Raven Drone]

I'm hoping the Lib Dems consider what has happened in London - They happily climbed in bed with the tories in areas such as Southwark and Camden last time around and were seriously punished by their voters for it on Thursday night.

On those occasions they opted to work with the tories even though the tories had less seats than Labour. Do they just choose the tories whatever??

[digime2007]

It's nice to see the media finally drilling down into party policies.

If only we'd had more of that in the run up and less of the red-herring debates, obsession with popularity polls and the borderline bullying of Gordon Brown.

Still, I have a bad feeling...

[Chazza]

Firstly there'll be a minority Labour government informally supported by the Lib Dems

How can the second-placed party form a minority government?

there'll be a referendum on proportional representation within weeks follwed by a proper general election which will end up a Lib Lab pact and the tories will be in oblivion.

The most likely party to end up in oblivion under a PR system is Labour. It would bolster the LD vote, as people would be more free to vote how they like, rather than voting tactically.

They'll also get rid of the house of Lords thus ending conservative hegemony of Britain forever! super-yay!

Labour wouldn't get rid of the House of Lords, when selling honours is such a money-spinner for them

For me, the biggest story in this election is the huge gap between the politics of England and the politics of the rest of the UK. The Tories won just one seat in Scotland, which actually saw a swing to Labour. There are no Tory MPs in NI. Wales is dominated by Labour. In England, the Tories actually have a sizable majority. The hung parliament and the opportunities afforded the smaller countries by devolution means that they'll be demanding exemption from public spending cuts as the price for their support. Would this be the point of no return for a break-up of the union? How long will the English wait for an answer to the West Lothian question?

Clegg is caught between a rock and a hard place; he's clearly a man with principles and I don't envy his position. Does he team up with the Tories and alienate significant sections of his party? Probably not. Does he prop up Brown in government, becoming the man who keeps in office a PM who has never won a party leadership election and was rejected by the electorate? Not when he champions electoral reform and another general election is likely to be held soon. Does he support Labour under a different leader? Have you seen the Labour party's rules on removing and electing leaders? It will take far longer than the markets will allow.

If Clegg extracts PR as a price for his support, rather than the implementation of some LibDem economic policies, he risks being seen as placing the interests of his party ahead of those of the country, after saying he has the national interest at heart. That's why the most likely outcome of this is a minority Tory government, with LD abstaining from votes on the Queen's speech and the budget. After that, you don't need a majority to govern. You just need it to pass new laws.

[sydeman]

As pretty much a floating voter, who has voted for all the major parties over time, and also some of the minor ones....i cannot understand why anyone would want to demolish democracy by providing a system where one party will not be able to gain power (as stated by Juwlz). In 1997, the country is fed up with the Tories, in 2010 the country is fed up with Labour. Simple as that. What Juwlz wants is labour in for good, regardless if they are doing a good job or not. How can that be a good thing? What happens when the party becomes dictatorial, and complacent? Didnt that happen in Nazi Germany or Soviet Union? I am sort of swayed by PR, but would prefer to see if the Tories/Libs can get it together first, as atleast it can be proved it works. In the mean time, very happy indeed that Labour is out of government, and that loathful Brown is ditched.

[digime2007]

I know I'll regret this but why is Brown so loathful?

Is it because he has a weird smile, or a funny eye, or that jaw thing? Is it because he doesn't look like Cleg-eron? Or because his media savvy is non existent? Or because the Tory media you read take such pleasure at ridiculing him?

I am actually genuinely interested in why people don't like him. I'd say he's made some big mistakes but I think him an honest, passionate and well meaning politician. I don't think that of many of them either.

[Juwlz]

The most likely party to end up in oblivion under a PR system is Labour. It would bolster the LD vote, as people would be more free to vote how they like, rather than voting tactically.

True, Labour stand to lose out the most from PR (at first at least).

Which just goes to show they must be the only party that actually care about the country and fairness, not just what suits them.

I think the Tories on the other hand are stuffed either way. If they form a minority government they will be in charge at a very grim time and they will make a complete hash-up and end up really unpopular. I can't believe it when you hear Tories wingeing about losing out under the system that they support! Its hilarious actually.

If the Lib Dems go in with the Tories that's the end of them, and the Labour vote will be massively bolstered by all the people who used to support the Libdems.

[Juwlz]

I know I'll regret this but why is Brown so loathful?

Is it because he has a weird smile, or a funny eye, or that jaw thing? Is it because he doesn't look like Cleg-eron? Or because his media savvy is non existent? Or because the Tory media you read take such pleasure at ridiculing him?

I am actually genuinely interested in why people don't like him. I'd say he's made some big mistakes but I think him an honest, passionate and well meaning politician. I don't think that of many of them either.

I don't dislike him. I think he's lovely. Like a cuddly slightly worn-out bear. A bear that's been cruelly baited by the media (and his own party at times). Oh and a decent politican who isn't scared to admit to his mistakes.

[leenewham]

I agree 100% with your post digime. I don't think Brown is Loathful at all. I actually think he has a good sense of humour too. You should see his talk on www.ted.com (if you don't know about this website, please check it out, it really is inspirational).

Sydeman, you aren't serious about the PR thing are you? Democrat Presidents in the UK have to work with republican congresses all the time, and vice versa (although they do have a first past the post system). Germany copes with hung parliaments all the time. Japan, has PR, as do Switzerland, Italy, Iraq, Denmark, India, Argentina and Brazil.

Countries with a similar system to ours include the US, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Uganda, Iran, Pakistan China, (for mayoral elections) and South Korea among others.

First past the past systems can throw up odd results. For example, in 2005 George Galloway 18.4% of the vote and ended up in the House of Commons.

[Chazza]

True, Labour stand to lose out the most from PR (at first at least). Which just goes to show they must be the only party that actually care about the country and fairness, not just what suits them.

I'd say it just goes to show how desperate the current leadership is to stay in power for five more years. They don't even care about their party, much less the country.

I think the Tories on the other hand are stuffed either way. If they form a minority government they will be in charge at a very grim time and they will make a complete hash-up and end up really unpopular.

I really don't understand this comment. You say that times are grim after 13 years of Labour government, but you still support them. It doesn't make any sense to me.

If the Lib Dems go in with the Tories that's the end of them, and the Labour vote will be massively bolstered by all the people who used to support the Libdems.

What makes you so sure that LibDem voters will switch to Labour? The Labour government have implemented a huge number of illiberal policies. Their diminution of the parliamentary process is most undemocratic.

All this talk about Labour "caring about the people" puzzles me. Does the left really think that people on the right went into the job just to make people's lives a misery? That their only wish is to close down all the hospitals and schools? One of the great things to come out of the current situation is that there will be much more scrutiny of policy. It's all very well Gordon Brown standing in front of a TV camera and saying "I'll fight for everyone!". Nice sentiment but he never seems to explain what he's actually going to DO.

Does anyone have any views on the state of the union? With the Scots scheduled to vote on independence later this year and a gaping chasm between the political wishes of people in England and Scotland, is this the beginning of the end?

[Juwlz]

True, Labour stand to lose out the most from PR (at first at least). Which just goes to show they must be the only party that actually care about the country and fairness, not just what suits them.

I'd say it just goes to show how desperate the current leadership is to stay in power for five more years. They don't even care about their party, much less the country.

Yes, of course they want to stay in power, but they also want fairness. I think alot of people have realised that the time has come for proportional representation.

I think the Tories on the other hand are stuffed either way. If they form a minority government they will be in charge at a very grim time and they will make a complete hash-up and end up really unpopular.

I really don't understand this comment. You say that times are grim after 13 years of Labour government, but you still support them. It doesn't make any sense to me.

Grim because of the global recession. I think Labour have handled it very well.

If the Lib Dems go in with the Tories that's the end of them, and the Labour vote will be massively bolstered by all the people who used to support the Libdems.

What makes you so sure that LibDem voters will switch to Labour? The Labour government have implemented a huge number of illiberal policies. Their diminution of the parliamentary process is most undemocratic.

The only people I know who voted Lib Dem did so either because they wanted proportional representation and felt Labour weren't progressive enough OR because they live in an area where it was between the Tories and Libdem and they wanted to keep the Tories out.

If the libdems make a deal with the Tories I know for a fact that BOTH these groups of people would be sick to their stomachs if they thought their votes had gone towards proping up the Tories. The libdems would never get their votes again that's for sure.

All this talk about Labour "caring about the people" puzzles me. Does the left really think that people on the right went into the job just to make people's lives a misery? That their only wish is to close down all the hospitals and schools?

No, but often they are more interested in helping their rich chums. They are too arrogant and don't really understand how things work and so they go about things the wrong way.

I've still got my hopes on a Labour-Libdem deal.

[fishcox]

I think its pretty typical of our politics, that we don't really have a clue about what is going on at the moment.

Don't you think we should know what the negotiations are? Shouldn't we know what trade-offs are being offered?

The Tories are desperate for power, and would give anything to be in number 10 (it's all William Hague has dreamt about since he was a 16 year old fogey).

I find it all pretty sad to be honest.

As I've said before; if you cut through all the crap that the (right wing) press has written about him, he hasn't actually done anything wrong.

Zac (Zac - for God's sake) Goldsmith. I could almost cry. We are seriously on our way to hell in a handcart.

[Juwlz]

I think its pretty typical of our politics, that we don't really have a clue about what is going on at the moment.

Don't you think we should know what the negotiations are? Shouldn't we know what trade-offs are being offered?

The Tories are desperate for power, and would give anything to be in number 10 (it's all William Hague has dreamt about since he was a 16 year old fogey).

I find it all pretty sad to be honest.

As I've said before; if you cut through all the crap that the (right wing) press has written about him, he hasn't actually done anything wrong.

Zac (Zac - for God's sake) Goldsmith. I could almost cry. We are seriously on our way to hell in a handcart.

Well, I don't think we really need to be party to the negotiations - its pretty obvious what they'll be about - a large helping of going through the motions with a garnish of desperation just to top it all off.

I agree with you about William Hague. Its no co-incidence that its the ones seemingly in charge of the negotiations – Osbourne and co– who are going to be out on their ear if it doesn't work out. There are loads of Tories supporters who absolutely can't stand Cameron, Osbourne and their ilk, but they're having to keep quiet while this shennanigans goes on in case they rock the boat too much before a deal is done (or more likely not! HAHA).

As for Zac – well I'm in too minds about him. I don't think its reasonable to hate someone purely because they were born into priviledge, although I do think that such a person is unlikely to be in touch with much of the world outside of Richmond, and too many of the upper classes seem to think they have the right to rule us minions. On the other hand if it's true he fought a proper grass roots campaign (well, grass roots amongst poshos perhaps!), then at least he won it on real campaigning and not some lame vacuous notion of 'the big society' or whatever the hell it was that Cameron was trying to sell.

I think its another example of how politics has got more specific to smaller areas, which was born out by the somewhat idiosyncratic election results.

If Richmond want Zac, let them have him. By the same reckoning many Londoners have decided that Labour are doing alright, and have been looking out for our best interests, hence the strong local election results for them.

[leenewham]

I just hope they decide today, this is bad publicity for PR if if takes this long to get a new government after an election and if the smaller party can decide who our prime minister is.

And this is from someone who supported the Liberal Democrats and PR!

They should be more open about it, but we don't need to know all the details. The liberal Democrats could do themselves a lot of damage if they don't sort this out soon as all the cards seem to be in their hands.

[digime2007]

I think we'll get a minority Tory government with some kind of time limited support from the Libdems.

I think the Libdems stand to loose too much by going into a formal coalition with the Tories and the arithmetic of the options with Labour are too fragile to see through some inevitably contentious cuts.

The Libdems can score some key concessions from the Tories in exchange for this support. This will play well with democrat supporters. Plus, by giving up formal power sharing they can retain that slightly smug 'new politics' high ground by 'putting the country before the party'.

This would stand them well for a referendum on AV even if the Tories campaign against it. At the next election (sooner rather than later) an AV system may put them in a similar but slightly stronger position where they can take their PR ambitions further.

On the Tory side they would have to moderate their spending cut plans to appease the Libdems but as they are only going to get a relatively short period before another election they'll want to play nice with the public anyway. They can go into another election saying 'see, we told you we'd changed now let us finish the job'.

Meanwhile Labour will be having a leadership contest which could lead to public displays of the usual political in-fighting which may harm them before an election rerun.

The Tories are desperate for power. The Libdems are in danger of shooting themselves in the foot. I can't see a more mutually agreeable permutation than what I've described.

Now, I'm off to the bookies before it's too late.