Many thanks to our webmaster for such a rapid and clear report of last night's community forum. The main topic of the evening was crime and disorder. However, the main speakers spent 40 minutes talking on the subject without ever mentioning crime or the level of crime in our area. Anyone looking at the report will understand why. The levels of reported violent crime in our area between 2003 and 2004 has soared: in Forest Hill by 29% and in Sydenham by 41%. There were a total of 840 reported incidents of violent crimes in both areas during 2004: an average of almost two and a half incidents every day in what is a very small area geographically. Criminal damage figures also show a rise at 18% in Forest Hill and 7% in Sydenham.
The speaker last night maintained that the fear of crime was far greater than crime itself. That's all very well if crime is actually falling and people are worrying about it unnecessarily. But anyone looking hard at these figures should surely be worried, very worried, if not fearful about crime.
CRIME IN SYDENHAM/FOREST HILL
Nasaroc - in a previous life I was a statistician so I must caution analysis on the figures I badgered out of the speaker last night.
An explanation of the rise in violence was the encouragement of women to report domestic incidents that would have gone unreported in previous years. While domestic strife terrifies its victims - it is unrelated to fear of crime on the street.
Which is why I am always uncomfortable with 'reported crime' statistics. I will continue to try and get the more complete report. Then perhaps we can make sense of whether underlying crime is indeed rising or falling.
I also have a fear that a target 20% reduction in three years is more easily achieved in statistics collection/reporting than actually fighting crime. But I must not be a cynic!
An explanation of the rise in violence was the encouragement of women to report domestic incidents that would have gone unreported in previous years. While domestic strife terrifies its victims - it is unrelated to fear of crime on the street.
Which is why I am always uncomfortable with 'reported crime' statistics. I will continue to try and get the more complete report. Then perhaps we can make sense of whether underlying crime is indeed rising or falling.
I also have a fear that a target 20% reduction in three years is more easily achieved in statistics collection/reporting than actually fighting crime. But I must not be a cynic!
Admin - I accept that statistics can give a false analysis. One of the main problems is that the actual level of crime is well above that which is recorded. Lewisham's Own "Crime, Drugs and Anti-Social Behaviour Audit 2004" estimates that there are three times as many residential burglaries as are reported, eight times as many robberies, 16 times as many common assaults and eight times as many cases of criminal damage. Pretty hair-raising stuff if you look at the figures you have obtained already!
Clearly, with this level of difference between reported and actual crime, it's difficult to decipher whether crime is actually going up or down. For example, it only requires the police to be a little more efficient (or less efficient) in recording crimes for the figures to vary widely.
However, a 41% rise in violent crime in Sydenham in a year is difficult to explain away purely by statistical aberration or by domestic crime being reported more effectively.
In these cases, it's very difficult not to sound alarmist but anecdotal evidence of rising street crime is also strong. I can tell you of six people I know who have been victims of violent street robberies in the last eighteen months in central Sydenham. I barely knew one victim in the previous twenty five years I've lived in the area. Local policemen will tell you "off the record" that things are getting worse. One told me just a month ago that he advised that no-one should use the alleyway in front of Sydenham station at any time of the day or night - it is "just too dangerous".
My money's on rising crime, particularly of the violent variety. Incidentally, did you know that last year 15 men reported themselves to Lewisham hospital with gunshot wounds. Their average age was 28.
Clearly, with this level of difference between reported and actual crime, it's difficult to decipher whether crime is actually going up or down. For example, it only requires the police to be a little more efficient (or less efficient) in recording crimes for the figures to vary widely.
However, a 41% rise in violent crime in Sydenham in a year is difficult to explain away purely by statistical aberration or by domestic crime being reported more effectively.
In these cases, it's very difficult not to sound alarmist but anecdotal evidence of rising street crime is also strong. I can tell you of six people I know who have been victims of violent street robberies in the last eighteen months in central Sydenham. I barely knew one victim in the previous twenty five years I've lived in the area. Local policemen will tell you "off the record" that things are getting worse. One told me just a month ago that he advised that no-one should use the alleyway in front of Sydenham station at any time of the day or night - it is "just too dangerous".
My money's on rising crime, particularly of the violent variety. Incidentally, did you know that last year 15 men reported themselves to Lewisham hospital with gunshot wounds. Their average age was 28.
Hairy stuff Nasaroc!
One thing I would like to pick up is your assertion that crime may be increasing in 'central Sydenham'. I was very unhappy at the introduction of CCTV without notice or consultation. The national statistical evidence suggests that it is not a cost effective way of reducing crime and one claimed effect of CCTV is crime is pushed out of the centre into the quieter more residential areas.
If there is no demonstrable significant decrease in street crime in central Sydenham - then this costly and unsightly system would be a disaster. Presumably someone in Lewisham should be evaluating this. It would be interesting to know who and be able to share their data.
Any ideas?
One thing I would like to pick up is your assertion that crime may be increasing in 'central Sydenham'. I was very unhappy at the introduction of CCTV without notice or consultation. The national statistical evidence suggests that it is not a cost effective way of reducing crime and one claimed effect of CCTV is crime is pushed out of the centre into the quieter more residential areas.
If there is no demonstrable significant decrease in street crime in central Sydenham - then this costly and unsightly system would be a disaster. Presumably someone in Lewisham should be evaluating this. It would be interesting to know who and be able to share their data.
Any ideas?
82.573% of all statistics are made up on the spot.
i just wanted to make the point that when there is an increase in crime in an area, it is often because the area has become more affluent, and its inhabitants are therefore targeted.
at the same time, i dont feel sydenham is any worse, crime wise, than when i moved here 20 years ago.
i just wanted to make the point that when there is an increase in crime in an area, it is often because the area has become more affluent, and its inhabitants are therefore targeted.
at the same time, i dont feel sydenham is any worse, crime wise, than when i moved here 20 years ago.
I personally don't mind CCTV, in fact I'd like it even more if it was backed by facial and number plate recognition as well as constant recording and artifcal intelegence.
For example wouldn't it be great if after the fight at greyhound the police could go knocking on the doors of the troublemakers?
For example wouldn't it be great if after the fight at greyhound the police could go knocking on the doors of the troublemakers?